Trends and developments in electric vehicle markets - IEA

After a decade of rapid growth, in 2020 the global electric car stock hit the 10 million mark, a 43% increase over 2019, and representing a 1% stock share. IEA CloseSearch Submit Email* Error Password* Forgotpassword? Error CheckboxRememberme SigninSignin Createanaccount CreateafreeIEAaccounttodownloadourreportsorsubcribetoapaidservice. JoinforfreeJoinforfree logo OpenNavigation Contents Cite Share Downloadfullreport arrow-down arrow-down-24 Introduction Overview ElectricVehiclesInitiative ElectricVehiclesInitiativecampaigns Trendsanddevelopmentsinelectricvehiclemarkets Trendsanddevelopmentsinelectriclight-dutyvehicles Trendsanddevelopmentsinelectricheavy-dutyvehicles Privatesectorcommitmentandotherelectrificationtrends Deploymentofvehicle-charginginfrastructure Policiestopromoteelectricvehicledeployment Areweenteringtheeraoftheelectricvehicle? Policiesaffectingtheelectriclight-dutyvehiclemarket Policiesaffectingtheelectricheavy-dutyvehiclemarket Prospectsforelectricvehicledeployment Outlookforelectricmobility Charginginfrastructure Implicationsforelectricmobility Annexes Referencesforfigures Citereport Closedialog IEA(2021),GlobalEVOutlook2021,IEA,Parishttps://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021 Copytoclipboard Sharethisreport Closedialog ShareonTwitterTwitter ShareonFacebookFacebook ShareonLinkedInLinkedIn ShareonEmailEmail ShareonPrintPrint Reportoptions Closedialog Download Morethan10millionelectriccarswereontheworld’sroadsin2020withbatteryelectricmodelsdrivingtheexpansion Electriccarregistrationsincreasedinmajormarketsin2020despitetheCovidpandemic GlobalAfteradecadeofrapidgrowth,in2020theglobalelectriccarstockhitthe10 millionmark,a43%increaseover2019,andrepresentinga1%stockshare.Batteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)accountedfortwo-thirdsofnewelectriccarregistrationsandtwo-thirdsofthestockin2020.China,with4.5millionelectriccars,hasthelargestfleet,thoughin2020Europehadthelargestannualincreasetoreach3.2 million.OveralltheglobalmarketforalltypesofcarswassignificantlyaffectedbytheeconomicrepercussionsoftheCovid-19pandemic.Thefirstpartof2020sawnewcarregistrationsdropaboutone-thirdfromtheprecedingyear.Thiswaspartiallyoffsetbystrongeractivityinthesecond-half,resultingina16%dropoverallyear-on-year.Notably,withconventionalandoverallnewcarregistrationsfalling,globalelectriccarsalessharerose70%toarecord4.6%in2020.About3 millionnewelectriccarswereregisteredin2020.Forthefirsttime,Europeledwith1.4millionnewregistrations.Chinafollowedwith1.2millionregistrationsandtheUnitedStatesregistered 295 000newelectriccars.Numerousfactorscontributedtoincreasedelectriccarregistrationsin2020.Notably,electriccarsaregraduallybecomingmorecompetitiveinsomecountriesonatotalcostofownershipbasis.Severalgovernmentsprovidedorextendedfiscalincentivesthatbufferedelectriccarpurchasesfromthedownturnincarmarkets. EuropeOverallEurope’scarmarketcontracted22%in2020.Yet,newelectriccarregistrationsmorethandoubledto1.4 millionrepresentingasalesshareof10%.Inthelargemarkets,Germanyregistered395 000 newelectriccarsandFranceregistered185 000. TheUnitedKingdommorethandoubledregistrationstoreach176 000.ElectriccarsinNorwayreachedarecordhighsalesshareof75%,upaboutone-thirdfrom2019.Salessharesofelectriccarsexceeded50%inIceland,30%inSwedenandreached25%intheNetherlands. ThissurgeinelectriccarregistrationsinEuropedespitetheeconomicslumpreflecttwopolicymeasures.First,2020wasthetargetyearfortheEuropeanUnion’sCO2emissionsstandardsthatlimittheaveragecarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsperkilometredrivenfornewcars.Second,manyEuropeangovernmentsincreasedsubsidyschemesforEVsaspartofstimuluspackagestocountertheeffectsofthepandemic.InEuropeancountries,BEVregistrationsaccountedfor54%ofelectriccarregistrationsin2020,continuingtoexceedthoseofplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs).However,theBEVregistrationleveldoubledfromthepreviousyearwhilethePHEVlevelthripled.TheshareofBEVswasparticularlyhighintheNetherlands(82%ofallelectriccarregistrations),Norway(73%),UnitedKingdom(62%)andFrance(60%).ChinaTheoverallcarmarketinChinawasimpactedbythepanademiclessthanotherregions.Totalnewcarregistrationsweredownabout9%.Registrationofnewelectriccarswaslowerthantheoverallcarmarketinthefirst-halfof2020.Thistrendreversedinthesecond-half asChinaconstrainedthepanademic.Theresultwasasalesshareof5.7%,upfrom4.8%in2019.BEVswereabout80%ofnewelectriccarsregistered.  KeypolicyactionsmutedtheincentivesfortheelectriccarmarketinChina.Purchasesubsidieswereinitiallyduetoexpireattheendof2020,butfollowingsignalsthattheywouldbephasedoutmoregraduallypriortothepandemic,byApril2020andinthemidstofthepandemic,theywereinsteadcutby10%andexendedthrough2022.Reflectingeconomicconcernsrelatedtothepandemic,severalcitiesrelaxedcarlicencepolicies,allowingformoreinternalcombustionenginesvehiclestoberegisteredtosupportlocalcarindustries. UnitedStatesTheUScarmarketdeclined23%in2020,thoughelectriccarregistrationsfelllessthantheoverallmarket.In2020,295 000 newelectriccarswereregistered,ofwhichabout78%wereBEVs,downfrom327 000in2019.Theirsalessharenudgedupto2%.Federalincentivesdecreasedin2020duetothefederaltaxcreditsforTeslaandGeneralMotors,whichaccountforthemajorityofelectriccarregistrations,reachingtheirlimit.OthercountriesElectriccarmarketsinothercountrieswereresilentin2020.Forexample,inCanadathenewcarmarketshrunk21%whilenewelectriccarregistrationswerebroadlyunchangedfromthepreviousyearat51 000.NewZealandisanotableexception.Inspiteofitsstrongpandemicresponse,itsawadeclineof22%innewelectriccarregistrationsin2020,inlinewithacarmarketdeclineof21%.ThedeclineseemstobelargelyrelatedtoexceptionallylowEVregistrationsinApril2020whenNewZealandwasinlockdown.AnotherexceptionisJapan,wheretheoverallnewcarmarketcontracted11%fromthe2019levelwhileelectriccarregistrationsdeclined25%in2020. The electriccarmarketinJapanhasfalleninabsoluteandrelativetermseveryyearsince2017,whenitpeakedat54 000 registrationsanda1%salesshare.In2020,therewere29 000 registrationsanda0.6%salesshare. Electriccarshadarecordyearin2020,withEuropeovertakingChinaasthebiggestmarket ConsumerspendingConsumersspentUSD 120 billiononelectriccarpurchasesin2020,a50%increasefrom2019,whichbreaksdowntoa41%increaseinsalesanda6%riseinaverageprices.TheriseinaveragepricesreflectsthatEurope,wherepricesarehigheronaveragethaninAsia,accountedforabiggerproportionofnewelectriccarregistrations.In2020,theglobalaverageBEVpricewasaroundUSD 40 000andaroundUSD 50 000foraPHEV.GovernmentspendingGovernmentsacrosstheworldspentUSD 14 billionondirectpurchaseincentivesandtaxdeductionsforelectriccarsin2020,a25%riseyear-on-year.Despitethis,theshareofgovernmentincentivesintotalspendingonEVshasbeenonadownwardslidefromroughly20%in2015to10%in2020.AlltheincreaseingovernmentspendingwasinEurope,wheremanycountriesrespondedtothepandemic-inducedeconomicdownturnwithincentiveschemesthatboostedelectriccarsales.InChina,governmentspendingdecreasedastheeligibilityrequirementsforincentiveprogrammestightened.AnimportantnoveltyinsubsidyschemeswastheintroductionofpricecapsinEuropeandChina,i.e.nosubsidygivenforvehicleswithpricesaboveacertainthreshold.ThismightberesponsibleforaverageelectriccarpricefallinginEuropeandChina:BEVcarssoldinChinawere3%cheaperin2020thanin2019,whilePHEVcarsinEuropewere8%cheaper. ConsumerspendingonEVscontinuestorise,whilegovernmentsupportstabilises Moreelectriccarmodelsareavailable;rangesstarttoplateau Worldwideabout370electriccarmodelswereavailablein2020, a40%increasefrom2019.Chinahasthewidestoffering,reflectingits lessconsolidatedautomotivesectorandthatitistheworld’slargestEVmarket.Butin2020thebiggestincreaseinnumberofmodelswasinEuropewhereit morethandoubled.BEVmodelsareofferedinmostvehiclesegmentsinallregions;PHEVsareskewedtowardslargervehiclesegments.Sportutilityvehicle(SUV)modelsaccountforhalfoftheavailableelectriccarmodelsinallmarkets.ChinahasnearlytwiceasmanyelectriccarmodelsavailableastheEuropeanUnion,whichhasmorethantwiceasmanyelectricmodelsastheUnitedStates.ThisdifferencecanpartiallybeexplainedbythecomparativelylowermaturityoftheUSEVmarket,reflectingitsweakerregulationsandincentivesatthenationallevel.TheaveragedrivingrangeofnewBEVshasbeensteadilyincreasing.In2020,theweightedaveragerangeforanewbatteryelectric carwasabout350 kilometres(km),upfrom200 kmin2015.TheweightedaveragerangeofelectriccarsintheUnitedStatestendstobehigherthaninChinabecauseofabiggershareofsmallurbanelectriccarsinChina.TheaverageelectricrangeofPHEVshasremainedrelativelyconstantabout50 kmoverthepastfewyears.Thewidestvarietyofmodelsandthebiggestexpansionin2020wasintheSUVsegment.Morethan55%ofannouncedmodelsworldwideareSUVsandpick-ups.Originalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)maybemovingtoelectrifythissegmentforthefollowingreasons:SUVsarethefastestgrowingmarketsegmentinEuropeandChina,andbyfarthelargestmarketshareintheUnitedStates.SUVscommandhigherpricesandgenerallyofferhigherprofitmarginsthansmallervehicles.ThismeansOEMsfinditeasiertobeartheextracostsofelectrificationforSUVssincethepowertrainaccountsforasmallershareofthetotalcostcomparedwithasmallcar.Electrifyingtheheaviestandmostfuelconsumingvehiclesgoesfurthertowardmeetingemissionstargetsthanelectrifyingasmallcar.InEurope,theZLEVcreditschemeinthemostrecentCO2emissionsstandardsoffersstrongincentivesforsellingelectricSUVsfrom2025,asitrelaxesemissionsstandardsinproportiontotheirpotentialtoreducespecificCO2emissions.Infact,inEurope,theshareofelectricSUVmodelsishigherthanfortheoverallmarket. AutomakersenticecustomerswithawidemenuincludingelectricSUVmodels Globalelectriclight-commercialvehicle(LCV)stocknumbersabout435 000 units.AboutathirdoftheseareinEuropewherenewelectricLCVregistrationsin2020wereonly5%belowthoseinChina,whichistheworldleader.ElectricLCVregistrationsinChinain2020were3 400 unitsbelowthepreviousyearandslightlylessthanhalfofthepeakin2018.ThebulkoftheelectricLCVregistrationsareBEVs,withPHEVsaccountingforlessthan10%.InEurope,electricLCVregistrationsjumpedalmost40%in2020fromtheprioryeartoexceed37 000 units.Thoughthatwaslessimpressivethanthemorethandoublingofelectriccarregistrations.NewEVregistrationsinEuropearebeingdrivenbyeconomicstimuluspackagesandbyCO2standardsthatlimitemissionsperkilometredriven.However,currentstandardsforLCVsarenotstringentenoughtowarrantlarge-scaleelectrification,astheydoforpassengercars.RegistrationofelectricLCVsin2020intherestoftheworldwereabout19 000 units.MostofthesewereinKorea,reflectingthelaunchoftwonewBEVLCVmodels,butCanadaalsoaddedtothestockofelectricLCVs.OthermarketsaroundtheworldhaveyettoseemuchuptakeofelectricLCVs.TheexplosionofhomedeliveriesduringtheCovid-19pandemicfurtherboostedtheelectricLCVexpansioninsomecountries.Increaseddeliveriesraisedconcernsaboutairpollution,particularlyinurbanareas.Inresponse,anumberofcompaniesannounced planstoelectrify deliveryfleets. ChinaleadsinelectricLCVsaleswithEuropenotfarbehindandKoreaenteringthemarket 18ofthe20largestOEMshavecommittedtoincreasetheofferandsalesofEVs DownloadimageDownloadimage Sources BMW(2021);BJEV-BAIC(2021);BYD(2021);Chery(2021);ChanganAutomobile(2021);Daimler(2021);Dongfeng(2021);FAW(2021);Ford(2021);GAC;GeneralMotors;Honda(2021);Hyundai(2020);Mazda(2021);Renault-Nissan(2019);MarutiSuzuki(2019);SAIC(2021);Stellantis(2021);Toyota(2021);Volkswagen(2021). Notes Thistableisbasedontheauthors’understandingofOEMannouncementsandmaynotbecomplete.Itincludesonlyannouncementsrelatedtoelectric light-dutyvehicles(PHEVsandBEVs)anditexcludesannouncementsrelatedtohybridvehiclesandthosethatdonotprovideaclearindicationoftheEVshare. OEMsareexpectedtoembraceelectricmobilitymorewidelyinthe2020s.Notably18ofthe20largestOEMs(intermsofvehiclessoldin2020),whichcombinedaccountedforalmost90%ofallworldwidenewcarregistrationsin2020,haveannouncedintentionstoincreasethenumberofavailablemodelsandboostproductionofelectriclight-dutyvehicles(LDVs).AnumberofmanufacturershaveraisedthebartogobeyondpreviousannouncementsrelatedtoEVswithanoutlookbeyond2025.MorethantenofthelargestOEMsworldwidehavedeclaredelectrificationtargetsfor2030andbeyond.Significantly,someOEMsplantoreconfiguretheirproductlinestoproduceonlyelectricvehicles.Inthefirst-trimesterof2021theseannouncementsincluded:Volvowillonlysellelectriccarsfrom2030;FordwillonlyelectriccarsalesinEuropefrom2030;GeneralMotors planstoofferonlyelectricLDVsby2035;Volkswagenaimsfor70%electriccarsalesinEurope,and50%inChinaandtheUnitedStatesby2030;andStellantisaimsfor70%electriccarssalesinEuropeand35%intheUnitedStates.Overall,theannouncementsbytheOEMstranslatetoestimatedcumulativesalesofelectricLDVsof55-72 millionby2025.Intheshortterm(2021-2022),theestimatedcumulativesalesaligncloselywiththeelectricLDVprojectionsintheIEA’sStatedPoliciesScenario.By2025,theestimatedcumulativesalesbasedontheOEMsannouncementsarealignedwiththetrajectoriesofIEASustainableDevelopmentScenario.  Manufacturers’electrificationtargetsalignwiththeIEA’sSustainableDevelopmentScenario Electricbusandelectricheavy-dutytruck(HDT)registrationsincreasedin2020inChina,EuropeandNorthAmerica.Theglobalelectricbusstockwas600 000in2020andtheelectricHDTstockwas31 000.BusregistrationsChinacontinuestodominatetheelectricbusmarket,withregistrationof78000newvehiclesin2020,up9%ontheyeartoreachasalesshareof27%.Localpoliciestocurbairpollutionarethedrivingforce.ElectricbusregistrationsinEuropewere2 100,anincreaseofaround7%,wellbelowthedoublinginregistrationsseenin2019.Electricbusesnowmakeup4%ofallnewbusregistrationsinEurope.Itistooearlytoseetheeffectofthenon-bindingEuropeanCleanBusDeploymentInitiativeanddemandmaybestilllargelydrivenbymuncipallevelpolicies.InNorthAmerica,therewere580 newelectricbusregistrationsin2020,downalmost15%fromtheprioryear.IntheUnitedStates,electricbusdeploymentprimarlyreflectspolicesinCalifornia, whichisthelocationofmostofthecurrente-busstock.InSouthAmerica,Chileleadsthewayregistering400 electricbusesin2020foratotalstockofmorethan800.Indiaincreasedelectricbusregistrations34%to600in2020.Heavy-dutytruckregistrationsGlobalelectricHDTregistrationswere7 400in2020,up10%onthepreviousyear.TheglobalstockofelectricHDTsnumbers31 000.Chinacontinuestodominatethecategory,with6 700 newregistrationsin2020,up10%thoughmuchlowerthanthefourfoldincreasein2019.ElectricHDTregistrationsinEuroperose23%toabout450 vehiclesandintheUnitedStatesincreasedto240 vehicles.Electrictrucksarestillbelow1%ofsalesinboth.  Electricbusandtruckregistrationsexpandedinmajormarketsin2020 Theavailabilityofelectricheavy-dutyvehicles(HDVs)modelsisexpandinginleadingglobalmarkets.1BusesweretheearliestandmostsuccessfulcaseofelectrificationintheHDVmarket,butthegrowingdemandforelectrictrucksispushingmanufacturerstobroadenproductlines.Nevertheless,modelavailabilityisnottheonlyindicatorofahealthymarket–fewertotalmodelsmayreflectthereliabilityandbroadapplicabilityofexistingdesigns,whereasmorediversityofmodelsmayreflecttheneedtotailorproductsforspecificneedsandoperations.Thegrowthinelectricmodelavailabilityfrom2020to2023acrosssegments–bus,mediumfreighttruck(MFT),heavyfreighttruck(HFT)andothers–demonstratesmanufacturers’commitmentstoelectrification.TruckmakerssuchasDaimler,MAN,Renault,ScaniaandVolvohaveindicatedtheyseeanall-electricfuture.Thebroadeningrangeofavailablezero-emissionHDVs,particularlyintheHFTsegment,demonstratesthecommitmenttoprovidefleetstheflexibilitytomeetoperationalneeds.TheHDVsegmentincludesawidevarietyofvehicletypes,e.g.fromlong-haulfreighttogarbagecollectiontrucks.Chinahasthemostvarietyinavailableelectricbusmodels.TheavailablityofMFTmodelsisbroadestintheUnitedStates.ForHFTs–thesegmentwheretheEVmodelofferisexpectedtothegrowthemost–Europeoffersthewidestselectionofmodels. Electricheavy-dutyvehiclemodelsarebroadening Typesofzero-emissionHDVsexpand,anddrivingrangelengthens DownloadimageDownloadimage Sources IEAanalysisbasedontheGlobalDrivetoZeroZETItool. Notes DataarederivedfromCALSTART’sZero-EmissionTechnologyInventory.Althoughtheinventoryiscontinuouslyupdated,thissnapshotmaybenotfullycomprehensiveduetonewmodelannouncementsandsmallmanufacturersnotyetcapturedintheinventory.Thetermzero-emissionvehicleincludesBEVs,PHEVsandFCEVs.Otherincludesgarbage,bucket,concretemixer,mobilecommercialandstreetsweepertrucks.Yearsafter2021includeannouncedmodels. Privatesectordemandforzero-emissioncommercialvehiclesamplifiesmarketsignalsforOEMstodevelopEVs Company Operatingarea Announced Target/actions Amazon Global 2020 Orders100000BEVlight-commercialvehiclesfromstart-upcompanyRivian.Amazonaimstobenet-zeroemissionsby2040. Anheuser-Busch UnitedStates 2019 Ordersupto800hydrogenfuelcellNikolaheavy-dutytrucks. DHLGroup Global 2019 DeliveryofmailandparcelsbyEVsinthemediumtermandnet-zeroemissionslogisticsby2050. FedEx Global 2018 Transitiontoanallzero-emissionvehiclefleetandcarbonneutraloperationsby2040. H2MobilityAssociation Switzerland 2019 19ofSwitzerland'slargestretailersinvestinHyundaihydrogentruckingservicesthatwilldeployupto1600heavy-dutyzero-emissiontrucks. IngkaGroup(IKEA) Global 2018 Zero-emissiondeliveriesinleadingcitiesby2020andinallcitiesby2025. JapanPost Japan 2019 Electrify1200mailandparceldeliveryvansby2021andnet-zeroemissionslogisticsby2050. JD China 2017 Replaceentirevehiclefleet(>10000)withNewEnergyVehiclesby2022. SFExpress China 2018 Launchnearly10000BEVlogisticsvehicles. Suning China 2018 Independentretailer’sQingchengPlanwilldeploy5000newenergylogisticsvehicles. UPS NorthAmerica 2019 Order10000BEVlight-commercialvehicleswithpotentialforasecondorder. Variouscompanies Multinational 2018 Walmart,Pepsi,Anheuser-Busch,FedEx,Syscoandotherlargemultinationalcorporationspre-order2000TeslaSemimodelswithinsixmonthsoftruck'sdebut. Walmart UnitedStates 2020 Electrifythewholevehiclefleetby2040. Notes:Basedonauthorsunderstandingofprivatesectorannouncementsandmaynotbecomprehensive.Sources:Amazon(2020);Anheuser-Busch(2019);DHLGroup(2019);FedEx(2021);H2MobilityAssociation(2019);IngkaGroup(2018);JapanPost(2019);JD(2017);SFExpress(2018);Suning(2018);UPS(2019);Variouscompanies(2017)(2020)andWalmart(2020). Despiteaturbulentyear,majorcompaniesaroundtheworldareacceleratingthetransitiontoelectricmobilitybyshiftingfleetstoelectricvehiclesandinstallingchargingstations.TheClimateGroup’sEV100Initiativebringstogetherover100 companiesin80 marketscommittedtomakingelectrictransportthenewnormalby2030.Thisequatesto4.8 millionvehiclesswitchedtoEVsandchargersinstalledin6 500 locationsby2030.Collectively,by2020EV100membershadalreadydeployed169 000 zero-emissionvehicles,doublethepreviousyear.Eventhoughcompaniesidentifycommercialvansandheavy-dutyvehiclesasthemostdifficultEVstofind,thenumberofcommercialelectricvehiclesrose23%in2020,includingathreefoldincreaseinelectrictrucks.EV100membersarealsoexpandingtheavailabilityofcharginginfrastructureforstaffandcustomers,with16 900 chargingpointsinstalledat2 100 locationsworldwide.OverhalfofEV100membersareusingrenewablestopoweralltheirchargingoperations.SignificantbarrierstoEVadoptionremain.EV100 membersreportedthelackofcharginginfrastructureasthetopbarrier(especiallyintheUnitedStatesandUnitedKingdom).Lackofavailabilityofappropriatevehicletypeswasalsohighlightedbythecompaniesasapersistantobstacle.ThepurchasepriceofEVsremainsanimportanthurdledespitemanycompaniesacknowledgethesignificantcostsavingsoverthelifetimeofavehicleduetolowerfuelandmaintenancecosts.Tohelpovercomethesebarriers,71%ofEV100memberssupportmorefavourableEVprocurementtaxbenefitsand70%favourmoresupportivepoliciesatstate,regionalandcitygovernmentlevels.Sixtypercentofthemembercompaniessupportgovernmenttargetstophaseoutpetrolanddieselvehicles. ClimateGroup’sEV100Initiativeupdateonprivatesectorcommitments Automotivelithium-ion(Li-Ion)batteryproductionwas160 gigawatt-hours(GWh)in2020,up33%from2019.Theincreasereflectsa41%increaseinelectriccarregistrationsandaconstantaveragebatterycapacityof55 kilowatt-hours(kWh)forBEVsand14 kWhforPHEVs.Batterydemandforothertransportmodesincreased10%.BatteryproductioncontinuestobedominatedbyChina,whichaccountsforover70%ofglobalbatterycellproductioncapacity.Chinaaccountedforthelargestshareofbatterydemandatalmost80 GWhin2020,whileEuropehadthelargestpercentageincreaseat110%toreach52 GWh.DemandintheUnitedStateswasstableat19 GWh.Nickel-manganese-cobaltcontinuestobethedominantchemistryforLi-ionbatteries,witharound71%salesshareandnickel-cobalt-aluminiumaccountingformostoftherest.Lithium-iron-phosphatebatterychemistryhasregainedsalessharebutisstillunder4%fortheelectriccarmarket.AccordingtotheBNEF’syearlysurveyofbatteryprices,theweightedaveragecostofautomotivebatteriesdeclined13%in2020from2019,reachingUSD 137/kWhatapacklevel.Lowerpricesareofferedforhighvolumepurchases,confirmedbyteardownanalysisofaVW ID3showinganestimatedcostofUSD 100/kWhforitsbatterycells.InEurope,demandforbatteriesin2020exceededdomesticproductioncapacity.TodayEurope’smainbatteryfactoriesarelocatedinPolandandHungary.Productioncapacityisroughly35 GWhperyear,butannouncedcapacitycouldyieldupto400 GWhby2025.Momentumwasevidentin2020inEuropewithmanynewbatteryplantsannouncedorunderconstructionwithsupportfromtheEuropeanInvestmentBank.IntheUnitedStates,bothKoreananddomesticbatterymanufacturershavesignalledlargeinvestmentsinamarketcurrentlydominatedbyaTesla-Panasonicjointventure. BatterydemandlaggedEVsalesin2020;Europeseeshighestriseindemand Electricmicromobilitysurgedinthesecond-halfof2020,oneoftheconsumertrendsthatacceleratedduringtheCovid-19pandemic,furtherboostedbytheconstructionofbikelanesandothermeasurestopromotemobility.Salesofprivatee-bikesintheUnitedStatesmorethandoubledin2020,outpacingsalesofallbikeswhichwereupanalreadyhealthy65%.Manysharedmicromobilityoperatorsreducedorsuspendedservicesduringtheheightofthesecond-quarter2020Covid-19lockdowns.Butasconfinementswereeased,servicesreboundedstrongly,with270 citiesworldwiderelaunchingoperations.AsofFebruary2021,around650 citieshavesharedmicromobilityservices.InEurope,e-scooterserviceshaveincreasedrapidly,withmorethan100 citiesaddingoperationssinceJuly2020.Preliminarydatafromoperatorsindicateaveragetripdistancesone-scootershaveincreasedbyaround25%relativetobeforethepandemic.Operatorsareincreasinglyofferingmorepowerfule-bikeswithplanstoexpandintoelectricmopeds,whichcouldfurtherdisplacelongertripscurrentlycompletedbycarorpublictransit.Severalmajoroperatorsareintroducingswappablebatteriestoimproveoperationalefficiencyandreduceemissions.Althoughtheuseofswappablebatteriesincreasesthenumberoftotalbatteriesneededtosupportafleet,itcansignificantlyreduceoperationalemissionsandenablelongerlifetimeofvehicles.Privatelyownedelectrictwo/three-wheelers(whichincludemotorisedvehiclessuchasmotorcyclesandmopedsbutexcludemicromobilitysolutions)areconcentratedinAsia,withChinaaccountingfor99%ofregistrations.Theglobalstockofelectrictwo/three-wheelersisnowaround290million.Electrictwo/three-wheelersaccountforone-thirdofalltwo/three-wheelersales.WhilecurrentsalesaredominatedbyAsia,themarketisgrowingrapidlyinEurope,risingby30%in2020,benefittingfromwidermodelavailabilityandcontinuedincentives. Pandemicspreadspopularityofelectricmicromobility Fuelcellelectricvehicles(FCEVs)arezero-emissionvehiclesthatconverthydrogenstoredon-boardusingafuelcelltopoweranelectricmotor.FCEVcarsbecamecommerciallyavailablein2014,thoughregistrationsremainthreeordersofmagnitudelowerthanEVsashydrogenrefuellingstations(HRS)arenotwidelyavailableandunlikeEVscannotbechargedathome.FewcommercialFCEVmodelsareavailableandwithhighfuelcostandpurchasepricesresultinahighertotalcostofownershipthanEVs.Toaddressthechicken-and-eggproblemforFCEVsanumberofgovermentshavefundedtheconstructionofHRSandhavedeployedpublicbusesandtrucks,suchasgarbagetrucks,toprovideacertainlevelofstationutilisation.Today,thereareapproximately540 HRSgloballythatprovidefuelforalmost35 000 FCEVs.Approximatelythree-quartersoftheFCEVsareLDVs,15%arebusesand10%aretrucks.In2020,KoreatooktheleadinFCEVs,surpassingtheUnitedStatesandChina,toreachmorethan10 000 vehicles.TosupporttheseFCEVs,thenumberofHRSinKoreaincreasedby50%,with18 newstationsin2020.FCEVsinChinaarealmostexclusivelybusesandtrucks,unlikemostothercountrieswherecarsaredominant.Chinaaccountsfor94%ofglobalfuelcellbusesand99%offuelcelltrucks.In2020,theglobalFCEVstockincreased40%,withKoreacontributinghalfanddoublingitstotalFCEVstock.JapanandChinaincreasedthenumberofHRS,eachopeningabout25stationsin2020.WorldwidethenumberofHRSincreased15%.  Koreatakesaleadindeployingfuelcellelectricvehicles Publiclyaccessibleslowandfastchargersincreasedto1.3millionin2020 WhilemostchargingofEVsisdoneathomeandwork,roll-outofpubliclyaccessiblechargingwillbecriticalascountriesleadinginEVdeploymententerastagewheresimplerandimprovedautonomywillbedemandedbyEVowners.Publiclyaccessiblechargersreached1.3 millionunitsin2020,ofwhich30%arefastchargers.Installationofpubliclyaccessiblechargerswasup45%,aslowerpacethanthe85%in2019, likelybecauseworkwasinterruptedinkeymarketsduetothepandemic.Chinaleadstheworldinavailabilityofbothslowandfastpubliclyaccessiblechargers.SlowchargersThepaceofslowcharger(chargingpowerbelow22 kW)installationsinChinain2020increasedby65%toabout500 000 publiclyaccessibleslowchargers.Thisrepresentsmorethanhalfoftheworld’sstockofslowchargers.Europeissecondwitharound250 000slowchargers,withinstalltionsincreasingone-thirdin2020.TheNetherlandsleadsinEuropewithmorethan63 000 slowchargers.Sweden,FinlandandIcelanddoubledtheirstockofslowchargersin2020.InstallationofslowchargersintheUnitedStatesincreased28%in2020fromtheprioryeartototal82 000.ThenumberofslowchargersinstalledinKorearose45%in2020to54 000,puttingitinsecondplace.FastchargersThepaceoffastcharger(chargingpowermorethan22 kW)installationsinChinain2020increasedby44%toalmost310 000 fastchargers,slowerthanthe93%paceofannualgrowthin2019.TherelativelyhighnumberofpublicallyavailablefastchargersinChinaistocompensateforapaucityofprivatechargingoptionsandtofacilitateachievementofgoalsforrapidEVdeployment.InEurope,fastchargersarebeingrolledoutatahigherratethanslowones.Therearenowmorethan38000publicfastchargers,up55%in2020,includingnearly7 500inGermany,6 200intheUnitedKingdom,4 000inFranceand2 000intheNetherlands.TheUnitedStatescounts17 000 fastchargers,ofwhichnearly60%areTeslasuperchargers.Koreahas9 800 fastchargers.Publiclyaccessiblefastchargersfacilitatelongerjourneys.Astheyareincreasinglydeployed,theywillenablelongertripsandencouragelateadopterswithoutaccesstoprivatechargingtopurchaseanelectricvehicle. Installationofpubliclyaccessiblechargersexpandedsevenfoldinthelastfiveyears;Covid-19mutedthepacein2020whileChinastillleads Europeancountriesforthemostpartfailedtomeettherecommendedelectricvehiclesupplyequipment(EVSE)perEV2020targetsforpubliclyaccessiblechargerssetbytheAlternativeFuelInfrastructureDirective(AFID).However,therearewidedisparitiesbetweencountries.AFID,thekeypolicyregulatingthedeploymentofpublicelectricEVSEintheEuropeanUnion,recommendedthatmemberstatesaimfor1publicchargerper10EVs,aratioof0.1in2020.IntheEuropeanUnion,theaveragepublicEVSEperEVratiowas0.09attheendof2020.Butthatisnotthewholestory.TheNetherlandsandItalyareabovethetargetat0.22and0.13respectively,withalmostallbeingslowchargers,thoughfastchargersare3%oftheinstallationsintheNetherlandsand9%inItaly.CountrieswiththehighestEVpenetrationtendtohavethelowestEVSEperEVratios,suchasNorway(0.03),Iceland(0.03)andDenmark(0.05).Inthesesparselypopulatedcountrieswithmanydetachedhousesandprivateparkingspaces,mostEVownerscanlargelyuseprivatehomecharging.Toalesserextent,italsorefectsthattheNordiccountrieshaveahigherproportionoffastchargers,withsharesof40%inIceland,31%inNorwayand17%inDenmark.  MostcountriesinEuropedidnotachieve2020AFIDtargetsforpubliclyaccessiblechargers Theroll-outofpubliccharginginfrastructurehassofarmostlyfocusedonservingelectriclight-dutyvehicles.Theelectrificationofheavyfreighttrucks(HFTs)isalongertermendeavour,withlessthan40electricHFTsontheroadin2020.HFTsrequirebatterieswithhighcapacitytomeettheirneedsforheavy-dutycyclesandlong-rangeoperations,andconsequentlytheyrequirehighpowercharging.SofarchargingoptionsforHFTshavetendedtobeearlystagedemonstrations,proof-of-conceptactivitiesandeffortstofaciliatestandardisation.  Megachargersof1 megawatt(MW)ormorewouldbecapableofchargingtrucksoperatingoverlongdistancesreasonablyquickly.Long-termplanningformegachargerinfastructureisneedednowtoavoidnegativeimpactsontheelectricalgrid.Someimpacttogridsisinevitablegiventhehighpowerrequirementsofmegachargers.Significantinvestmentmaybeneededforgridreinforcements,modernisation,storageandintegrationwithpowersystems.Planningandco-ordinationamongelectricitygenerators,distributionsystemoperatorsandmegachargingoperationsareneeded.Someeffortsareunderwaytodevelopstandardsformegachargers.Workingjointly,theCHAdeMOassociationandtheChinaElectricityCouncilhavedevelopedanultra-highpowerchargingstandard(upto900 kW),calledChaoJi.Aversionupto1.8 MW,calledUltraChaoJi,isunderdevelopment.Inparallel,theCharINinitiativeestablishedataskforcecalledtheMegawattChargingSystemTaskforcewhichaimstodevelopanewhighpowerstandardabove1 MWby2023forchargingheavy-dutytrucks,basedonthecombinedchargingsystem(CCS)standard.PrototypetestingstartedinSeptember2020.Teslaannouncedinlate2020thatitisworkingwiththird-partiestodevelopastandardformegachargersthatcanbeprovidedtoSemitruckowners.TeslaisoneoffivetohavesubmittedadesigntoCharIN.Industryexpertsaddressinginternationalstandardisationareevaluatingavenuestoharmonisemegachargerstandardsformutualcompatibility,inordertofacilitatetheroll-outofelectricHFTs.Therearealsoregionaleffortstodevelopmegacharginginfrastructure.Underpinnedwithstimulusfunding,Iberdrola,aSpanishmultinationalelectricutility,hasexpressedinterestininstallingmegachargerinfrastructureinheavy-dutyfreighttruckcorridorsinSpainby2025.ElaadNL(EVknowledgecentreofDutchgridoperators),alongwithlocalandnationalgovernmententities,inSeptember2021launchedanopen-accesstestcentreforcompaniesandacademiathatofferstestfacilitiesformegachargers.IntheUnitedStates,theWestCoastCleanTransitCorridorInitiativeaimstoinstallchargingsitescapableofchargingHDTsat2 MWalongkeytransitcorridorsfromMexicototheboderwithCanadaby2030. Planningneedstostartnowformegachargerstoenablelong-distancetrucking Notesandreferences ElectricHDVsdataarederivedfromtheGlobalDrivetoZero’sZeroEmissionTechnologyInventory(ZETI)whichisaregularlyupdatedtoolthatoffersadetailedglimpseofannouncedOEMproductionmodeltimelines.ZETIdataaremeanttosupportfleetoperatorsandpolicymakersandshouldnotbeconstruedasrepresentativeoftheentirevehiclemarket. Reference1 Closedialog ElectricHDVsdataarederivedfromtheGlobalDrivetoZero’sZeroEmissionTechnologyInventory(ZETI)whichisaregularlyupdatedtoolthatoffersadetailedglimpseofannouncedOEMproductionmodeltimelines.ZETIdataaremeanttosupportfleetoperatorsandpolicymakersandshouldnotbeconstruedasrepresentativeoftheentirevehiclemarket. Next Policiestopromoteelectricvehicledeployment Subscriptionsuccessful Closedialog Thankyouforsubscribing.YoucanunsubscribeatanytimebyclickingthelinkatthebottomofanyIEAnewsletter.