EV Sales Forecasts - EVAdoption

Below is our latest long-term forecast for new electric vehicle (BEV and PHEV) sales in the US through 2030. EV sales should grow to reach approximately ... BEV&PHEVSALES&VEHICLESINOPERATION:2011-2021|EXCELFILEBUYNOW$425EV&HYBRIDSALESBYSTATE:2011-2021|EXCELFILEBUYNOW$495Q32021CALIFORNIAEVCHARGINGUTILIZATIONREPORTBUYNOW$295EVSALESBYSTATE:Q1-Q32021|EXCELFILEBUYNOW$1951H2021EVSALESREPORT|24CHARTSBUYNOW$395NEEDCUSTOMDATA,CHARTS,ORREPORTSONEVSOREVCHARGING?FILLOUTFORMFORCOSTQUOTE Previous Next ARTICLES Articles CleanTechnicaArticles ArticleArchives EVSALES QuarterlyUSEVSalesScoreboard EVSales FederalEVTaxCreditPhaseOutTrackerByAutomaker USEVSalesPercentagesofTotalVehicleSalesByBrand Federal&CaliforniaIncentivesbyEVModel EVMarketSharebyState FactorsContributingtoEVSalesMarketShareByUSState PercentShareofUSEVSalesByState EVSalesForecasts EVMODELS EVsCurrentlyAvailableintheUS BEV&PHEVModels BEVModels PHEVModels FutureEVs FutureEVs NewElectricVehiclesin2021 NumberofEVsByAutomaker EVsWith300MilesorMoreofEPARange DiscontinuedElectricVehicles(EVs) CHARGINGSTATS EVChargingStatistics DCFastChargingStatistics Level2Chargers&Locations USChargingNetworkRankings ChargingStationsByState RESOURCES HowTheFederalElectricVehicle(EV)TaxCreditWorks Research&Statistics EVCompaniesPubliclyTradedintheUS–Table EVWebSites&Blogs BUYDATA&REPORTS Reports CustomCharts&Reports SERVICES MarketAnalysis&Consulting Speaking&Presentations CustomCharts&Reports Marketing ABOUT About Contact SubscribetotheNewsletter EVAdoptionEmailNewsletterArchives Menu ARTICLES Articles CleanTechnicaArticles ArticleArchives EVSALES QuarterlyUSEVSalesScoreboard EVSales FederalEVTaxCreditPhaseOutTrackerByAutomaker USEVSalesPercentagesofTotalVehicleSalesByBrand Federal&CaliforniaIncentivesbyEVModel EVMarketSharebyState FactorsContributingtoEVSalesMarketShareByUSState PercentShareofUSEVSalesByState EVSalesForecasts EVMODELS EVsCurrentlyAvailableintheUS BEV&PHEVModels BEVModels PHEVModels FutureEVs FutureEVs NewElectricVehiclesin2021 NumberofEVsByAutomaker EVsWith300MilesorMoreofEPARange DiscontinuedElectricVehicles(EVs) CHARGINGSTATS EVChargingStatistics DCFastChargingStatistics Level2Chargers&Locations USChargingNetworkRankings ChargingStationsByState RESOURCES HowTheFederalElectricVehicle(EV)TaxCreditWorks Research&Statistics EVCompaniesPubliclyTradedintheUS–Table EVWebSites&Blogs BUYDATA&REPORTS Reports CustomCharts&Reports SERVICES MarketAnalysis&Consulting Speaking&Presentations CustomCharts&Reports Marketing ABOUT About Contact SubscribetotheNewsletter EVAdoptionEmailNewsletterArchives Search Close EVSalesForecasts Belowisourlatestlong-termforecastfornewelectricvehicle(BEVandPHEV) salesintheUSthrough2030.EVsalesshouldgrowtoreachapproximately29.5%ofallnewcarsalesin2030fromanexpectroughly3.4%in2021. Thiswouldalsoseesalesincreaseto4.7millionfromalittlemorethan500,000in2021. Checkoutour Q32021CALIFORNIAEVCHARGINGUTILIZATION|REPORT$295 REPORT&EXCELSHEETReportDetailsServices–Marketanalysis&consulting –Marketing –Speaking&presentationsLearnMoreCustomData,Tables,&ReportsEVAdoptionspecializesinproducingcustomEV-relatedresearchreportsandchartsandgraphs.FilloutFormsistersite,EVStatisticsLookingfor“snackable”electricvehiclechartsandstatistics? EVStatisticshasavarietyofEVchartsaddedonaweeklybasis.GotoEVStatistics Previous Next Addinguptheannualsalesbeginningfrom2010getsustoapproximately26.2millioncumulativeelectricvehiclessold,butfactoringinanincreasingrateofEVsgoingoutofoperationeachyear,wearriveat~25.19million EVsinoperation. Thisisanincreaseof14Xfromtheroughly1.8millionattheendof2020.  WhenlookingatthestateofCalifornia,our2030forecastforjustBEVs(notincludingPHEVs)showsBEVsasashareofnewvehiclesalesreachingnearly57%. Whenwillsalesofelectriccars(EVs)reachmassadoption?(seepresentationbelow) Whenwillelectricvehiclescrossthechasmintothemainstreamintheus?6.6.19 from EVAdoption Creatingforecastsofwhenmassadoptionwilloccurisafunexercise,butnoonecansaywithanyrealconfidencethattheirpredictionislikelytobespoton.Thereareacoupleofdozenvariables(gasandbatteryprices,regulations,batteryrange,chargerspeedandavailability,supplyofnewEVmodels,etc.)thatcaneitherspeeduporslowdownEVadoption. EVAdoptionhasjoinedthefrayofforecastingfutureelectricvehiclesales,butwithspecificscopeanddefinitions: WearedefiningmassadoptionasEVscomprising16%ofnewautosaleswithinaspecificgeographicmarket. Atleastforthenearterm,wearefocusingonlyontwomarkets:TheUSandCalifornia. Assumptions: USautosales:AutoanalystsandeconomistsdonotagreeonfutureUSautosales,butforourforecast,weareassumingthatautosaleswillseeamodestdeclineoverthenextseveralyearsdotoaslowingeconomy,changingpurchasebehaviorincludingconsumersholdingontocarslongerandforgoingsecondandthirdcarsbysharinganduseofride-sharingservices. Californiaautosales:WeareassumingthatunliketheUSoverall,autosalesinCaliforniawillremainrelativelyflatoverthenextseveralyears.ThisisbasedonCalifornia’scontinuedstrongeconomyandhigh-techemploymentandCalifornian’sloveofdrivingnicecars. NewEVmodelintroductions:Weexpecttheintroductionofasignificantnumberof“affordable”EVsinthe2020-2022timeframe. Medianbatteryrange:Luxurycarbatteryrangewilleasilyaverage250-300milesby2020,thekeywillbetheavailabilityofaffordableSUVsandcrossoverswith250milesofrange. Chargingspeed:DCfastchargingtimeto80%batterylevelisreducedtoabout15-20minutesbyaround2022. 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